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Equit y
R es ea r ch A mer ic a s
|
U nit ed
S ta tes
In
thi s
r epor t
w e t a k e a c loser
loo k
a t
the
8
r enew a ble
diesel
pr oje ct s
a nnounced
by
U S independent
r ef iner s .
We
a r e ca lc ula ti ng
EB IT DA
( w it h
a nd
without
B T C ) ,
I RR,
cost o f
c a pa ci ty a ddit ions
( $ /g a l)
a nd
br ea k even
c a r bon
pr ic e needed
to
k eep
pr oj ect s
a bove
10 %
IR R .
We
a r e a lso
hig hli g hti n g
str eng ths
a nd
wea k nes s e s
of
i ndividua l
pr ojec ts.
Th e
D e b at e :
Depen ding
upon
how
bulli s h
or
bea r ish
a n
i nves tor
i s
on
ca r bon
pr ic in g ,
w e would
cl a ss if y
t hem
a s :
1 )
C a r bon
pr ic e opt imist
-
be li eves i n
wide s pr ea d
L CF S
a dopti on tha t
w ill
s uppor t
hig he r
c a r bon
p r i ces;
2 )
Pr a g m a ti s t
– beli eves c a r bon
pr ic es
will
move
up in
the
long e r
ter m
but
sees
nea r - ter m
vola ti li ty
i f
a ll
a nnounced
ca pa ci ty
a ddit ions
( ~ 2.6 B n g a l/
y r )
c om e onl ine;
3 )
B T C
opt i mist
-
beli eves r enew a bles
is the
f utur e ,
but
stil l
bea r ish on
c a r bon
pr ic in g ,
a nd
see s
B T C
g ett ing
ex tended
pa s t
2022
a s
C ong r es s
wa nts
to enco ur a g e us e of
l ow e r
c a r bon
f uels ;
a nd
4 )
Pes s imist
– bea r ish
on
c a r bon
pr ic es
a nd beli eves r enew a ble
tr a de
i s
IMO
2020
ve r s ion
2.0 .
S inc e we
a r e i n
ea r ly
sta g es ,
w e ex pect the
ca r bon
pr ic e
optimist
to
be
th e m os t
eng a g ing
a nd
dr ive
the
r e new a bles
tr ade.
Ou r
P r e feren c e :
While
m ultipl e pr ojec ts
ha ve
been
a nnounced,
w e ha ve
a str ong pr ef er en ce
f o r
pr o jects
tha t
a r e u s ing
f eeds toc k
with
l ow er
c a r bon
i ntensity
( C I) .
V L O ’s
S t. C ha r les a nd
Por t
A r thur
ca n
del iv er
g ood
r etur ns
even
without
B T C
or
i n
a n
envir onment w her e c a r bon
pr ic es
d r op
t o
~ $120 /t on.
It
does cost mo r e t o
c on s tr uct
pr oje ct s
with
l ow er C I
f eeds toc k ,
but
a pr ojec t
using f eed
with
C I
of
25
ha ve
a n
a lmos t
~ $0.75 / g a l
g r os s m a r g in
a dvanta g e over
a pr ojec t
us ing
C I
of
53.86 .
Put
a nother
w a y ,
a pr ojec t
w it h
C I
o f 25
ha s
a n
a lmos t
$50 - $60 /t on
c a r bon
pr ic in g
a dvanta g e over
a hi g her
C I
p r ojec t.
A
l ow er C I
pr ojec t
ca n
withstand
a much
w ea k er
ca r bon
pr ic e envir onment
vs.
hig her
C I
f eed pr ojec t .
O n
pa per ,
both
Ma r ti nez
( IR R
42 % )
a nd
R odeo
( IR R
24 % )
conver s ion s
look a tt r a ct ive,
but
g iven
the
pr o x imity
of
t he
t w o
r e f ine r ies ,
w e ex pect
competit ion
f o r
f eeds toc k a s
well
as
pr oduct
pl a cement.
A t
thi s
sta g e ,
Ma r ti nez
f u ll
conver s io n
( Pha s e 1
2022 s ta r tup )
ha s
a f ir s t - m over
a dvanta g e over
R odeo
f ull
conve r s ion
( 2024
s ta r tup ) .
U p si d e
and
Ri sks:
If
L CF S
be c om es
a na ti ona l
m a nda te,
c a r bon
pr ic es
will
move
up ( $220 - $250 /t on)
a nd
L CF S
c r e dit s
will
pr ic e hi g her ,
r a ising
I RR
of
a ll
pr ojec ts.
O n
t he other
ha nd
i f
L CF S
d o e s
n o t
g e t
w ider
a dopti on
out s ide
of
C a li f o r nia
a nd
a ll
a nnounced ca pa ci ty
ex pa ns ions
come
onli ne, ca r bon
c r edit
ba nk would
buil d
r a pidl y
a nd
c a r bon
pr ic es would
dr op ,
puttin g
ec onom ic s
of
ma ny
pr ojec ts
in
s ing le
di g it s
( IR R
bel ow
10 % ) .
C a li f or nia diesel
dema nd
i s
f la t;
r ef ine r ies c onver ti ng
to
r enew a bl e di es el
f a ci li ty
( M a r ti nez
a nd
S a n F r a n )
a r e g oing
to
pr oduce
diesel
a t
the
ex pense of
g a s oli ne. Even tua l ly ,
C a li f o r nia ’s
diesel m a r k et
w ill
become
over s uppli ed
a nd
g a s oli ne
under s uppli ed
( bull i s h
PB F ) .
Co n c l u sio n :
Wi th
thi s
ma g nit ud e of
c a pa ci ty
a nnouncem ents, r e f iner s
a r e ma k ing
a n implic it
a ss um pti on
tha t
the
D em ocr a ti c
pr es ident ia l
ca ndida te
w ill
ta k e t he
W hit e H ouse i n N ov em ber .
T his
w ill
s ig nif ic a ntl y
i ncr ea s e t he
poss ibi li ty
o f
L CF S
b ecoming
a na ti ona l m a nda te ,
or
a t
le a s t
a m or e r a pid
a dopti on
a cr os s
m ultipl e s t a tes ,
pus hing
up
ca r bon
pr ic es , r a ising
EB IT DA
a nd
IR R
pr oje ct io ns .
In
the
event
P r es ident
Tr ump
g ets
r e - ele cted ,
s om e of these
pr ojec ts
coul d
be
de lay ed
or
c a ncel led.
Rese ar c h
An aly sts
Ma n a v
G up ta
212
325
6617
m a nav.gupta @ c redit - s uis s e. c om
D IS CLOSU RE
AP P E ND IX
AT
TH E
B ACK
O F
TH IS
REP O RT
CONTA IN S
IMP O RT ANT
D IS CLOSU RE S ,
ANALYST CE RT IFICATIONS, LE G AL
E NTITY
D IS CLOSU RE
AND
TH E
S TA TU S
O F
NON - U S
ANALYSTS.
U S
Discl os ur e :
C r edit
S uiss e does a nd
s eek s
to
do
business w it h
compa nies
cover ed
in
it s
r e s ea r ch
r epor ts.
A s
a
r es ult ,
inve s tor s
s hould
be
a w a r e
tha t
the
F ir m
m a y
ha ve
a
conf li ct
of
int e r e s t
tha t
coul d
Renewa ble
Diesel Cl oser Loo k
a t
R eturn s
and Risk s
for
Proje c ts
O il
&
Ga s
R ef ini ng
&
M a r k eti n g
|
Ex per t
Ins ig h ts
T a ble
of
Cont en ts
Ex ecut ive
S umm a r y
................................................................................................................. 3
S umm a r y
of
R etur ns
3
Wha t
would
m a k e us
m or e B ull ish?
5
Wha t
would
m a k e us
B ea r i s h ?
6
B r ea k even
A na ly s is
................................................................................................................. 8
R enew a bles
T r a de
– T he
Deba te
........................................................................................... 9
A
C loser
L ook
a t
Individua l
Pr ojec ts
..................................................................................... 10
HFC
– A r tesia
a nd
C h eyenne
10
VL O
– S t.
C ha r les E x pa ns ion
13
VL O
– Por t
A r thur
15
PS X
– R odeo
F ul l
C onver s ion
17
MPC – Ma r ti nez
F ul l
C onver s ion
19
PS X
– R odeo
Di es el
Hy d r ot r ea ter
Pr ojec t
21
C VI
– Wy nnewood
Hy dr o cr a ck er
Pr ojec t
23
A ppendix
............................................................................................................................... 25
How t o
c a lc ula te
Gr os s
M a r g in
f or
i ndividua l
pr oje ct s
25
R ene w a ble
Diesel vs.
B io - diesel
27
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
MPC
Martinez
VLO
St.
Charles
VLO
Port
Arthur
PSX
Rodeo
HFC
Artesia
& Conversion
Converison
Cheyenne
Without
BTC
ext.
With
BTC
ext.
Executiv e
Summ a r y
Sum mary
of
R et ur ns
In
thi s
r epor t
w e t a k e a c loser
loo k
a t
the
8
r enew a ble
diesel
pr oje ct s
a nnounced
by independent
r ef iner s .
We
a r e ca lc ula ti ng
EB IT DA
upside
( w it h
a nd
without
B T C ) ,
I RR,
cost o f ca pa ci ty
a ddit ions
a nd
br ea k even
c a r bon
pr ic e needed
t o
k eep
pr o jec t
IR R’s
a bove
10 % .
We a r e a lso
hig hli g hti n g
str en g ths
a nd
wea k nes s es
of
i ndividua l
pr ojec ts.
E B ITDA
O ur
ba s e c a s e nor m a li zed
EB IT D A
estima tes
a r e c a lc ula te d
on
cur r ent
ca r bon
p r ic es
of
~ $196 /t on.
How ever ,
in
indi vidu a l
pr ojec ti on
secti on
we
ha ve
r un
s ens it ivit ies on
EB IT DA
ba s ed on
c a r bon
pr ic es
r a ng e of
$140 - $240 /t on.
O ur
nor m a li zed
EB IT DA
estima tes
a s
show n
i n
F ig .
1
e x cl ude
a ny
bene f it
o f
B T C .
We
ha ve
r un
scena r io
a na ly s is on
a ll
pr ojec ts
to
ca lc ula te EB IT DA
a ss um ing
B T C
does g et s
ex tended
f or
5
y ea r s
post
2022 ,
but
a l ow er
c r edit
benef it
of
$0.50 / g a l
vs .
cur r ent
$1 /g a l.
Figu r e
1 :
E B ITDA
-
M ajo r
P r o j e c t s
($M )
Figu r e
2 :
E B ITDA
-
S mal l e r
C o n v e r sio n
P r o j e c t s
($M )
Sourc e: C om pa ny
da t a ,
C redit
Suis s e es t im a t es
(* VL O
E B I T DA
is net )
Sourc e: C om pa ny
da t a ,
C redit
Suis s e es t im a t es
IRR
Pr ojec ts
that’ s
do
come
onli ne
b ef or e y ea r
end
2022 ,
w ill
be
see
a n
upl if t
in
IR R
a s
t hey
a r e g ett ing
f ull
bene f it
o f
B T C
o f
$1 / g a l.
O ur
ba s e c a s e IR R
es ti m a tes
a r e c a lc ulated
on
c ur r ent ca r bon
pr ic es
o f
~ $196 / ton.
Ho w ever ,
in
indi vidua l
pr oje ct ion
s ec ti on
w e ha ve
r un
sens it ivit ies on
EB IT DA
ba s ed
on
ca r bon
pr ic es
r a ng e of
$140 - $240 / ton.
W e ha ve
r un
scena r io
a na ly s is on a ll
pr ojec ts
to
ca lc ula te
IR R
a ss um ing
B T C
does g ets
e x tended
f o r
5
y ea r s
post
2022 ,
but
a lower
c r edit
benef it
o f
$0.50 / g a l
vs .
cur r ent
$1 / g a l.
Without
BTC
ext.
With
BTC
ext.
CVI
Wynewood
Hydrocracker
PSX
San
Fran
Hydrotreater
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
EBITDA
($M)
EBITDA
($M)
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
MPC
Martinez
VLO
St.
Charles
VLO
Port
Arthur
PSX
Rodeo
HFC
Artesia
&
Conversion
Converison
Cheyenne
Without
BTC
ext.
With
BTC
ext.
150%
100%
50%
0%
PSX
San
Fran
Hydrotreater
CVI
Wynewood
Hydrocracker
Without
BTC
ext.
42%
With
BTC
ext.
IRR
(%)
IRR
(%)
Figu r e
3 :
IR R
( % )
–
M ajo r
P r o j e c t s
80%
Figu r e
4 :
IR R
( % )
–
S mal l e r
C o n v e r sio n
P r o j e c t s
350%
70%
300%
60%
250%
50%
200%
Sourc e: C om pa ny
da t a ,
C redit
Suis s e es t im a t es
Sourc e: C om pa ny
da t a ,
C redit
Suis s e es t im a t es
Co st
o f
ad d i n g
n e w
c ap ac i t y
It
does cost mor e t o
c ons tr u ct
...
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