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JUL Y
2020
Energy
T r ANSITION
Str ATEGIES
V ietnam ’ s
Low
Carbon Development
P ath way
A UTHOR S
Nikos
T saf os Lachlan
Car e y
About
CSIS
The
Center
f or
Str ategic and
International
Studies
(CSIS)
is
a
bipartisan,
nonpr ofit
polic y r esearch or ganization
dedicated
to
advancing
pr actical
ideas to
addr es s
the
world’ s
gr eatest challenges.
Thomas
J.
Pritzk er
was
named
chairman
of
the
CSIS
Boar d
of
T rustees in
2015, succeeding f ormer
U.S.
senator Sam
N unn
(D-GA).
F ounded
in
1962, CSIS
is
led
by
John
J.
Hamr e,
who has
ser ved
as
pr esident
and
chief
executive
officer since
2000. CSIS’ s
purpose
is
to
define
the
f utur e of
national
security .
W e ar e guided by
a
distinct
set of
values—nonpartisanship, independent
thought ,
innovative
thinking ,
cr os s-disciplinar y scholarship,
integrity
and
pr of es sionalism,
and
talent
development .
CSIS’ s
values work
in c oncert
towar d
the
goal
of
making
r eal-world impact .
CSIS
scholars bring
their
polic y
expertise,
judgment ,
and
r obust networks to
their r esearch,
analysis,
and
r ec ommendations.
W e or ganize c onf er ences,
publish,
lectur e,
and mak e media
appear ances
that
aim
to
incr ease
the
knowledge,
awar enes s,
and
salience
of polic y
is sues with
r elevant
stak eholders and
the
inter ested
public.
CSIS
has
impact
when
our
r esearch helps
to
inf orm the
decisionmaking
of
k ey polic ymak ers
and
the
thinking
of
k ey influencers.
W e work
towar d
a
vision
of
a
saf er
and more pr osper ous
world. CSIS
is
r ank ed the
number
one
think
tank
in
the
United
States
as
well as
the
defense
and national
security center
of
excellence
f or
2016-2018
by
the
University
of
P ennsylvania’ s “ Global
Go
T o Think
T ank
Index . ”
CSIS
does not
tak e specific
polic y
positions;
acc or dingly ,
all
views
expr essed her ein
should be
understood
to
be
solely
those
of
the
author(s).
© 2020
by
the
Center
f or
Str ategic
and
International
Studies.
All
rights
r eser ved
Center
f or
Str ategic &
International
Studies 1616
Rhode
Island
A venue,
NW W ashington,
D .C .
20036
202-887-0200
|
www .csis.or g
Acknowledgments
The
authors
would lik e to
acknowledge the
work
and
insights
of
the
people who
wr ote papers
that
we
c ommis sioned
or
participated in
our
workshops.
W e would lik e to especially thank
the
f ollowing
people who
wr ote
papers:
Le
Thai
Ha
&
David
Dapice,
F ulbright
School
of
Public P olic y
&
Har var d
University
R achel
Ros s
&
Evan Scandling , Allotr ope P artners
Ha
Son,
Center
f or
Ener g y
and
Gr een
Growth
Research
Du
Huynh, Indiana
University
Andr ew
Sc ott ,
Overseas Development
Institute
This
r eport
is
made
pos sible by
gener ous
support
fr om
B P .
About
the
Pr oject
Ener g y
T r ansitions:
L ow- Carbon
P ath ways
f or
Growth
and
Sustainability
ex amines
how developing
c ountries
ar e balancing
their
development
priorities—particularly ,
an
ever- gr owing
demand
f or
ener gy—with
the
mounting
need
f or
carbon
mitigation.
Thr ough
case studies
of
V ietnam,
Ethiopia,
and
the
Indian
state
of
Gujar at ,
the
pr oject
explor es the complementarities
between
development
and
low- carbon
tr ansitions
within
the
sectors of
electricity
gener ation
and
acces s,
tr ansport ,
and
industr y .
F urthermor e,
it
explicitly r ec ognizes the
inher ent
challenges
and
opportunities
of
a
low- carbon
tr ansition
in
an en vir onment
that
prioritizes
ec onomic
gr owth
and
r apid urbanization.
By
understanding
succes sf ul
ex amples
of
gr owth
and
mitigation,
the
pr oject
will
highlight wher e and
how
government ,
industr y ,
and
society
can
cr eate positive
f eedback loops f or str onger climate
action
and
improved development
outc omes.
Additionally ,
each
sector
in
each
countr y
is
c omprised of
a
unique
c ombination
of
political,
ec onomic,
and
social
actors,
which
neces sitate
polic y
innovations
specific
to
their
c ontext .
The
pr oject
will
dr aw polic y
priorities fr om
these
specific
case studies
and
challenge
the
misplaced
notion
that gr owth
and
climate
action
ar e inc ompatible.
This
r eport
is
based
on
a
workshop that
the
Ener g y
Security
and
Climate
Change
Pr ogr am hosted
in
M arch 2020, f or
which
we
c ommis sioned
five
papers
and
in vited
a
number
of experts
to
discus s
past succes s
stories and
the
path
f orwar d
f or
V ietnam.
Contents
K ey Findings
1
Back dr op:
V ietnam
in
Context
4
s
#1:
P ower
Supply Expansion
9
s s
#2:
N ear
Universal
Electricity
Acces s
and
Gr owing
Consumption
12
s
#3:
Acces s
to
Clean
F uels
and
T echnologies
f or
Cooking
14
s
#4:
Enc our aging Renewable Ener g y
In vestment
15
s
#5:
Ener g y
E ffi cienc y
in
Heavy
Industr y
17
Succes s
Story
#6:
Improved Acces s
to
Urban
Mobility
Amidst
Rapid Urbanization
20
About
the
A uthors
23
K ey Findings
Over
the
past two decades,
V ietnam’ s
ec onomic
gr owth
has
been
r emarkable,
and with
that
gr owth
has
come
incr eased
ener g y
use
and
more gr eenhouse
gas
emis sions. Our
goal
in
this
pr oject
was
to
ex amine
the
extent
to
which
ec onomic
gr owth
and decarbonization
(or
avoiding
carbon)
c ould
co-exist ;
on
a
macro scale,
V ietnam’ s
experience
would suggest that
this
is
difficult ,
at
least
at
early
stages
of
development .
On closer
inspection,
however ,
ther e is
more to
the
story .
Although
it
is
true that
V ietnam’ s ec onomic
gr owth
has
been
ver y
ener g y-
and
carbon-intensive,
ther e ar e also instances wher e the
countr y
has
made
gr eat
progr es s,
either
in
achieving
lower- carbon
outcomes or
in
avoiding
higher- carbon
path ways. F or
instance,
V ietnam
power ed a
r apidly gr owing
ec onom y
and
achieved
universal electrification
by
first in vesting
heavily
in
h y dr oelectricity ,
then
in
c oal-fir ed gener ation. Despite
this
partial
r eliance
on
c oal,
V ietnam
has
pr ovided good
mobility
in
big
cities
with les s
congestion
and
air
pollution
than
is
seen
elsewre; it
has
improved acces s
to
cleaner cooking
f uels,
thus
impr oving
air
quality
(albeit at
the
expense
of
more emis sions);
it
has r educed
the
ener g y
intensity
of
heavy
industr y
(if
only
slowly);
and
it
has
managed
to attr act
significant
in vestment
in
r enewable power .
In
other
wor ds,
ther e ar e two sides to V ietnam’ s
ec onomic
stor y:
a
carbon-intensive
one,
and
a
low- carbon
one.
V ietnam’ s
ener g y
succes ses
have
diff er ent
origins.
Some
have
emer ged
fr om
str ong
and technically
c ompetent
institutions,
others
fr om
political
c ommitment .
Outc omes
lik e incr eased
power
supply and
electrification
wer e high-level
political
priorities backed
by
capable
institutions
and
supported by
ample
r esources.
Other
outcomes
have
been mark et -driven:
the
penetr ation
of
clean
cooking
f uels
tr acks with
rising inc ome
levels,
f or
instance,
and
the
r elatively
positive
mobility
outcomes
have
persisted despite
failur es in
planning .
In
other
cases,
V ietnam
has
benefited
fr om
dynamics
beyond
its
bor ders:
it exploited
the
falling
c osts
in
r enewable ener g y
to
attr act
f or eign
capital,
both
because local institutions
had
cr eated space
f or
such
an
opening
and
because f or eign
companies
and civil
society
nudged
the
government
in
that
dir ection.
All
of
these
f orces,
internal
and
external,
ar e pr esent
in
the
succes s
stories discus sed throughout
this
r eport .
In
the
r apid expansion
of
its
power
supply ,
V ietnam
adopted man y of
the
pr actices
of
its
closest
neighbors—such
as
r elying
on
c oal gener ation—while
slowly implementing
the
mark et
r ef orms r ec ommended
by
institutions
lik e the
W orld
Bank .
V ietnam’ s
str ong
institutional
capacity allowed it
to
plan
f or
this
dr amatic
incr ease
in
supply ,
while
r ef orms to
the
structure of
its
power
sector improved the
financial
ability
of its
state-owned
utility ,
EVN ,
to
mak e the
neces sar y
in vestments
under
that
plan.
Acces s
to f or eign
in vestment ,
particularly
fr om
China
and
Japan in
the
field
of
c oal gener ation,
also helped
underpin
the
scale and
pace of
expansion.
At
the
same
time,
V ietnam
expanded
acces s
to
electricity
throughout
the
countr y
to nearly ever y
village and
household.
V ietnam
r eached
near-universal
acces s
by
extending its
national
grid, r ather
than
through
the
off-grid
solutions
often
touted
as
leapfr og opportunities
f or
developing
c ountries.
In vestments
in
grid
infr astructure wer e made pos sible thanks
to
detailed
planning ,
the
stable financial
position
of
EVN ,
and
a
political c ommitment
to
sustainable
development
through
ener g y
acces s.
By
c ontr ast ,
V ietnam’ s
incr ease
in
acces s
to
clean
f uels
and
cooking
technologies
has lar gely
been
a
story
of
decentr alized
mark et
actors
satisfying
the
gr owing
demand
f or these
pr oducts.
In
2000, only
13
percent
of
the
V ietnamese
population
primarily
used clean
f uels
and
cooking
technolog y ,
a
figur e that
has
risen
to
64
percent
today thanks
to rising inc omes
and
well-distributed
ec onomic
gr owth.
In
particular ,
the
shift
fr om
biof uels to
the
use
of
liquified
petr oleum
gas
has
improved indoor
pollution
and
general quality
of lif e f or
millions
of
V ietnamese
people.
Meanwhile,
V ietnam’ s
r ecent
progr es s
in
scaling
up
r enewab...
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