下面是小编为大家整理的卡车运输：ACT研究专家会议纪要（全文完整）,供大家参考。
G l o b al R e sear c h
3
May
2020
T r u cki n g
Tr ans cr i pt:
Tak e aways
f r o m
ou r
e xpe r t
con f e r e n ce call
wi th
ACT
R e s e ar ch
A C T
R e se a r ch
f o r e ca st s
w e a k t r u ck
p r o d u c t i o n ,
f r e i g h t
d e man d
f o r
r e s t
o f
2020 W e
ho s ted
a
c on feren ce
c al l
w i th
ACT
R es earc h to
d i s c u ss
th e
tru c k & frei gh t
ou tl ook. Th e
o v eral l
me ss ag e
w as
th at
th ere
are
to o
man y
unkno w n s
to
fo rm
an
ex p ec tati on w it h c on fi d e n c e;
rath er,
ACT
as s u mes
t h e
ec ono my
w ill
re - e ng ag e
i n M ay , w i th
frei gh t s po t
rates
bo tto mi ng i n Q 3 a nd c on trac t
rates
i mpro v i ng i n mi d-2021. ACT
b el i ev es
th e au to
s ec to r i s
a
good i nd i c ato r o f
w h en
th e
l a bor fo rc e
go es
b ac k to
w ork. ACT
ex p ec ts tr u c k ord ers
to
tro ugh i n Q 2 b efo re
a
mod es t
p i c k-up i n Q 3/ Q 4, a nd a
r e t urn t o mor e norm a l
l eve l s
i n " 21. A C T
ex pe c t s
pr oduc t i on t o be
dow n f or t w o m ont hs
( -9 0%
Y oY ) , v s .
t he
m a j or i t y
of
O E M s
w hi c h
ha ve
a nn ounc e d
a
~ 1
m ont h
ha l t .
P r oduc t i on
i s ex p ec ted
to
re mai n b el o w
rep l ac emen t
i n " 21 b efo re
go i ng a bo ve
rep l ac emen t
i n " 22. N e t
o r d e r s
co u l d
b e
n e g a t i v e
i n
Q 2
ACT
no ted
th at
Cl as s
8 n et
ord ers
c ou l d b e
n e g ati ve
i n Q 2, w h en
c on s i d eri ng th e
h i gh numb er
o f
c an c el l ati on s
th at
c ou l d exc eed
gro ss
ord ers . ACT
s ees
po ten ti a l
fo r fl eets
to c an n i b al i ze
p arked
tru cks ;
( UB S:
po ten ti al
h w
to
OEM s
p arts
rev s ) .
Sti ll ,
th e
c ap ac i ty attri ti on
c ou l d
l ead
to
an
urg e n t
n eed
to
bu y
n ew
tru cks
on ce
d eman d
retu rn s .
T h e s upp l y
c h ai n i s
frag men ted , an d ACT
b el i ev es
i t
w ill
take
a
few
qu arters
fo r produ c ti on to
g et
b ac k to
fu ll
s p eed . F u r t h er
d ec li n e
i n
f r ei g h t
ac t i vi t y
i s
li kel y
o ver
t h e
n ext
f ew
w eeks
Tru c kl o ad
s po t
market
d ata
s ho w s
a
s h arp
fal l -o ff
i n
frei gh t
ac ti v i ty
o v er
th e
p as t s ev eral
w eeks ,
an d
ACT
ex p ec ts
fu rth er
w eaken i ng
o ve r
th e
c o mi ng
w eeks .
O n
th e c on feren ce
c al l , ACT
i nd i c ated
th ey
ex p ec t
a
25 %
d ec li n e
i n rai l
i n termo d a l
v o l u mes
i n 2 Q , a nd a
s h ar p er
d ec li n e
i n LTL
ac ti v i ty
c omp ared
to
tru c kl o ad .
Tru c kl o ad
s po t
rate s are
do w n rough l y
10 %
Y o Y , a nd ACT
an ti c i p ates
a
tran s i t i on t o sli gh t ly
po sit iv e
r a t e s
i n 4 Q 20 w i th
a
s h arp er
s tep
up i n 2 Q 21 w h en
th ey
ex p ec t
a
ti gh ter
tru c kl o ad
market.
2008 - 09
p r o v i d e s
i n si g h t
o n
t r u ck e r
b e ha v i o r
am i d
a
sha r p l y
w k r
f r e i g h t
ma r k e t G i v en
th e
s h arp
d ec li n e
i n frei gh t
ac ti v i ty
& s po t
market
l o ad s , s mal l
tru c kl o ad
c arri er s are
li kel y
to
s ee
s i gn i fi c an t
fi n a n c i al
p res s u re.
ACT
po i n ted
to
s mal l
c arri er
b e h av i or th at to ok p l ace
i n " 08/ " 09 w h ere
s m al l
c arri ers
c an n i b al i z ed
a
po rti on o f
th e i r fl eet
fo r s p are p arts
to
av o i d
p arts
&
s erv i ce
c o s ts ,
es s en t ially
sid e l in i ng
~ 4-5 %
o f
c ap ac i ty .
ACT fo rec as ts
ac ti ve
Cl .
8
c ap ac i ty
to
fal l
~4 %
o v er
th e
n ex t
y ear,
an d
w e
b el i eve
th e do w n tu rn
i n
frei gh t
i s
li kel y
to
d ri ve
c ap ac i t y
attri ti on,
s uppo rti ng
s tro ng e r
p ri c i ng
& up s i d e
fo r TL
n ames
i n th e
" 21 ti meframe.
W e
h ave
B u y
rati ng s
on KNX
& SNDR .
St even Fi sh er ,
CFA A na l ys t s t eve n.f i s he r @ ubs .com
+1 -212-713
8634
Th o mas
Wad e w i t z
A na l ys t t hom a s .w a de w i t z @ ubs .com
+1 -212-713
6116
Mar ku s
Mi tt er m ai er
A na l ys t m a rk us .m i tt e rm a i e r @ ubs .com
+1 -212-713
2716
G u ille r m o
P e ig n e u x L o jo
A na l ys t gui ll e rm o.pe i gne ux - l oj o@ ubs .co m
+ 44-20-7568
9016
Xi ngz ho u
L u,
C F A
A na l ys t xi ngzhou.l u@ ubs . com
+ 44-20-7568
4820
Sven
Wei er
A na l ys t s ve n.w e i e r @ ubs.c om
+ 49-69-1369
8278
www .u b s.co m / i n vest m en t r esea r ch
Th i s
rep o rt
h as
b een
p rep ared
b y
UB S
Se c u ri ti es
LL C.
ANAL YS T
C E R T I F IC AT I O N
AND
R E Q UI R E D
DIS C L O S UR E S
B E G I N
O N PA G E
17 .
UB S
do es
an d s eeks
to
do
bu s i n es s
w i th
c omp an i es
c o v ered
i n i ts
res earc h r ep o rts .
As
a
re s u l t , i n v es t o rs
s hou l d b e aw are
th at
th e
fi rm ma y
h ave
a
c on fl i c t
o f
i n teres t
th at
c ou l d affec t
th e
ob j ec ti v i ty
o f
t h i s
rep o rt.
I n ve s to rs
s hou l d c on s i d er
th i s rep o rt
as
on l y
a
s i ng l e
fac to r i n maki ng th ei r i n v es tmen t
d ec i s i on. I ndus t r i a l
Tr ans por t at i on Am er i cas
Equit ies
O t he r
poi nt s
O n
a
r e l a t i v e
ba s i s ,
r e f r i ge r a t e d
uni t s
( r ee f e r s )
a r e
holding
up.
D e m a nd
f or mu l ti - t e mp
uni t s
r e m a i n s
high
v s .
s i ngl e
t e mp
uni t s
( use d
f or
r e s t a ur a nt de li v e r y )
i s
do w n.
A C T
f r a m e d
t h e
y oung
f l ee t
a ge
by
poi nt i ng
t o
t he
f a c t
t ha t
t he
l a s t
or de r
s pik e w a s
t e c hnolog y -dr i v e n
( e g
A M T
an d
dr i v er
as s i s t an c e
s y s t em s ).
UB S
c al l
wi th
AC T
R es earc h
Ho st s :
St even F i sh er ,
U BS
U . S .
M a c hi ne r y
a nd
E ng i ne e r i ng
&
C on s t r uc t i on
A na l y s t
Th o mas
W ad ew i t z ,
U BS
U . S .
T r ans por t a t i on
An a l y st
M ar kus
M i tte r m ai e r ,
UB S
U S
E le ctr i ca l
E qu i pm e nt
a nd
M ul t i - I ndus t r y
An a lys t
X i ngz hou
L u,
U BS
E M E A
E ng i ne e r i ng
A na l y s t G u i ller m o
Pei g n eu x,
U B S
EM E A
C ap i t al
G ood s
An al y s t Sven
W ei er ,
U BS
E M E A
E ng i ne e r i ng
A na l y s t
Sp eaker s :
K en ny
V i et h ,
Pres i d en t
an d
Sen i or
An al y s t ,
A C T
R es e ar c h
Ti m
D en o yer ,
V i c e
Pres id en t
an d
Sen i or
An al y s t ,
A C T
R es ear c h
W e
pr e s ent
be l ow
t he
t r a ns c ri pt
f r om
our
r e c ent
c a ll
w i t h
K e nny
V i e t h,
Pr e s i de nt
a nd
S eni or
A na l yst
a t
A C T Res ear c h
a nd
Ti m
D en o y er ,
V i c e
Pr es i d e n t
an d
Sen i o r
A n al yst
at
A C T
Res ear c h .
M i n o r
g r am m at i c al
c h an g e s t ha t
do
not
i m pa c t
t he
m e a ni ng
of
cont ent
ha v e
be e n
a ppl i e d.
T he
opi ni on s
e x pr e ss e d
by
K e nny V i e t h
or
T i m
D e noy e r ,
pe r s on a ll y
or
on
be ha f
of
A C T
Re s e a r c h,
he r e i n
do
not
nec e ss a ril y
r e f l e c t
t he
v i e w s a nd
opi ni ons
of
U BS .
U BS
a cce p ts
n o
r e s p o n s ib ili ty
fo r
t h e
a ccu r a cy,
r e li a b i lit y
o r
co m p l e t e n e ss
of
t h e i nf or m a t i on
a nd
w ill
not
be
li a ble
e i t he r
di r e c t l y
or
i ndi r e c t l y
f or
a ny
l os s
or
da m a ge
a ri s i ng
out
of
t he
use
of t hi s
i nf or m a t i on
or
a ny
pa r t
t he r e of .
A p r i l
13 th ,
2020
11: 00
A M
ET
Coor di na t or :
W elc om e,
ev er y on e,
t o
t h e
U B S
C on f eren c e
wi t h
A C T
R es ear c h hos t e d
by
S t e v e
F i s he r.
M y
na m e
i s
A nna ,
a nd
I
a m
y our
e v e nt
m a nage r
t oda y . D ur i ng
t he
c o nf e r e nc e
y our
li ne s
w ill
r e m a i n
on
li s t e n-onl y ,
[ ope r a t or
i ns t r uc t i ons ]. I
w ou l d
l ik e
t o
a dv i s e
a ll
pa r t i e s
t ha t
t hi s
c o nf e r e nc e
i s
be i ng
r e c or de d.
And
w i t h
t ha t
I
w ould
li k e
t o
ha nd
t he
c a ll
o v e r
t o
S t e v e .
P l ea s e
go
a h ea d.
St eve:
T ha nk s ,
A nna .
G ood
morning,
good
a ft e rnoon,
e v e r y body .
I ’ m
S t e v e
F i s h e r, U B S
U S
M ac h i n er y
an d
E& C
An al y s t .
T ha nk s
f or
j oining.
T he
t opi c
t o da y
i s
t h e T r uc k
a nd
F r e i ght
O ut l ook
w i t h
A C T
R e s ea r c h.
C o-ho s t i ng
w i t h
m e
t oda y
i s
a num be r
of
m y
U BS
c ol l ea gu e s
he r e
a round
t he
w or l d.
T om
W a de w i t z ,
T r ans por t s An al y s t
i n
t h e
U S;
M ar ku s
M i tt er m ai er ,
U S
M u l t i - I ndu s t r y
a nd
E le ctr ica l
E quipm e n t A na l y s t ;
a nd
f rom
our
E ur ope a n
C a p i t a l
G oods
T ea m,
w e
ha v e
X i ng
L u,
G ui ll e rmo Pei gn eu x
an d
Sv en
W ei er .
W e
ar e
v er y
p l eas ed
t o
h ave
b ac k
wi t h
u s
K en n y
V i eth
a nd
Ti m
D en o y er
o f
A C T Re s ea r c h.
M a n y
of
y ou
k now
K e nny
a nd
T i m.
T he y ’ v e
do ne
a
t on
of
gr ea t
w ork
t ha t
he l ps
a ll
o f
us
i n
our
w ork.
T he y
w e r e
c e r t a i nl y
a l r ea dy
c a lli ng
f or
a
dow n
y ea r i n
2020
a
l ong
t i m e
be f or e
t he
v i r us
hi t ,
a nd
w e ’ r e
r ea ll y
ha ppy
t o
ha v e
t he m t oda y .
W e ’ ll
of f e r
a
p l ug.
T he y
a r e
hos t i ng
a
w e bi na r
t omorr ow
w i t h
t he i r
f ul l
t ea m
on COV I D -19
i m pa c t ,
a nd
y ou
c a n
v i s i t
a c t r e s ea r c h. ne t
t o
ge t
t he
de t a il s
t o
r e gi s t e r f or
t ha t .
But
y ou
ge t
a
pr e v i e w
he r e
t oda y .
A ft e r
s om e
op e ning
r e m a rk s ,
...
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